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Spectacular economic recovery is expected, contributing to revenue growth
In the implementation of state budget revenue estimates, the Ministry of Finance has directed to promote revenue management, reform administrative procedures, create favorable conditions for businesses, strive to increase revenue in wealthy areas and fields, and drastically handle the collection of tax arrears. Thanks to the growth momentum of the economy from the last months of 2020, a number of industries and fields benefit from loosening fiscal and monetary policies such as banking, securities, real estate, etc. have contributed better for the state budget, state budget revenue in 2021 has reached and exceeded the estimate by 16.4%.
Recalling 2021 with many challenges caused by the pandemic, along with many fiscal policy packages to support people and businesses, directly affecting budget revenue, but the Ministry of Finance has always been prepared, proactively overcoming all difficulties with the highest sense of responsibility to fulfill the assigned tasks, contribute to stabilizing the macro-economy and promote growth. Improved economic growth and over-budget revenue at the end of the year are proof that policies have been on the right track.
According to economists, thanks to favorable economic development in the first two months of 2022, GDP growth in the first quarter can reach 5 - 5.5%. It is suggested that GDP growth rate will gradually improve and peak in the third quarter of 2022 due to negative growth in the third quarter of 2021.
Dr. Can Van Luc - member of the National Monetary and Financial Policy Advisory Council, Chief Economist of BIDV, predicts that in February, economic growth will continue to recover quickly, GDP in the first quarter 2022, is forecasted to increase about 5 - 5.5% over the same period last year. The expert said his confidence about the above growth rate could only be built on the basic assumption that the Covid-19 pandemic wave is gradually under control.
There are many factors supporting high economic growth thanks to the large room for expansion of fiscal policy and more favorable than monetary policy thanks to overspending and public debt that is still under control and lower than other countries in the region; the scale of fiscal support over the past time is still quite modest; major balances (overspending, public debt, debt repayment/state budget collection obligations, inflation, etc.) are still within a safe threshold. These are important factors for the Finance sector to strive to continue to achieve and exceed the state budget estimate in 2022.
An economic "picture" with bright colors shall be unwrapped
According to Dr. Dinh Trong Thinh, the Government was correct in deciding to give the first priority to ensure safety against the pandemic, but has provided safe conditions and an appropriate roadmap to reopen the economy. The return to production and business will promote economic growth to recover. According to Dr. Dinh Trong Thinh, the support package on fiscal and monetary policies is said to be a drastic move by the National Assembly and the Government, injecting more money to promote production and business, and support business development.
“In fact, in the past time, besides fighting the pandemic fiercely, the Government has been urgently building and promulgating various major programs and plans, the goal is to pool resources including the budget to create strong push to help economic recovery. Support packages related to tax reduction, land rent, loan interest reduction programs, debt rescheduling and postponement, in the spirit of "harmony of interests" of the Government will help businesses in particular and the economy in general. recover soon” - Dr. Dinh Trong Thinh commented.
According to economic experts, it is possible to imagine the correct and prudent "steps" of the Government in three phases: The outbreak of the disease; the period of reopening the economy; recovery phase and building resilience of the economy. In the context of the current Covid-19 pandemic, creating a healthy business environment is extremely important to ensure economic recovery and restore investor confidence.
Although there are still many difficulties in the immediate future, it is forecasted that 2022 will open an economic "picture" with many bright colors. According to experts' predictions, in the medium and long term, with the "push" of an unprecedented economic development and recovery support package, starting from the beginning of February until the end of the year, businesses will take advantage of the favorable business environment, start the process of recovery and breakthrough.
Improving the business environment, promoting economic recovery and increasing resilience after the crisis has been mentioned a lot and these will be the priority goals of the National Assembly and the Government in the coming time. Because, a favorable business environment is important for the long-term resilience of the economy and helps to recover quickly from the crisis.
Box: Although there are difficulties ahead, but forecasts for 2022 will be an economic "picture" with many bright colors. According to experts' predictions, in the medium and long term, with the "push" of an unprecedented package of economic recovery and development support, starting from the beginning of February until the end of the year, businesses will take advantage of the favorable business environment to start the process of recovery and breakthrough.
