Ministry projects three economic growth scenarios for 2024

These projections stem from the Government's socio-economic development strategy for the 2021-25 period, combined with endeavours to meet the 2023 growth goal of 6.5%.

Given the challenges faced by the Vietnamese economy between 2021-23, 2024 is anticipated to be a pivotal year for Vietnam to accomplish the objectives of its five-year plan.

In the first scenario, Vietnam's GDP is predicted to rise by 6%. This estimate presumes that global growth will be moderate in 2023 and the resurgence of global trade and investment will continue to face hurdles. Although the domestic market and services sector might exhibit robust growth, the import, export, and industrial production sectors may not experience a marked recovery due to their reliance on global market demand.

The Ministry of Planning and Investment believes a GDP growth target of 6% would be fitting, given the expected continued risks the global and domestic economies may encounter during the recovery phase.

Under the second scenario, the ministry envisages a GDP growth of 6.5%, assuming that both the global and regional economies rebound quicker than international organisations' predictions. This scenario also considers a surge in demand, trade, and investment. Concurrently, the domestic market would likely experience revivals in demand, production, business activities, exports, investment, and FDI influx.

For the third scenario, the GDP growth is projected to range between 6 - 6.5%, reflecting predictions of swift changes in both global and domestic contexts. The Ministry of Planning and Investment favours this third scenario.

While optimism regarding economic recovery is on the rise, various organisations and specialists remain wary about the prospects for Vietnam's economy.

In mid-July, the Asian Development Bank adjusted its 2023 forecast for the Vietnamese economy downwards from 6.5% to 5.8% and its 2024 projection from 6.8% to 6.2%.

Similarly, in early April, the World Bank anticipated a moderate 4.7% growth for Vietnam in 2023, progressively increasing to 5.5% in 2024 and reaching 6% by 2025.

The World Bank’s report pointed out that a proactive fiscal policy supporting short-term demand, removing barriers to the implementation of public investment and addressing infrastructure constrains could help the economy achieve these targets and prolong long-term growth./.