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| HCM City’s economy to rebound in Q2, likely to grow by 8% in 2024 |
According to the report titled “Ho Chi Minh City Macroeconomic Report: 2023 Results and 2024 Forecast”, the city’s economy is forecast to continue to recover in 2024.
Reaching a growth target of 7.1-8% this year is possible if the global economy continues to recover favourably and measures to promote total demand are effectively implemented in the city, it said.
Based on data from the last quarter of 2023, the report indicated stable economic recovery in the country’s largest city.
Total demand recovery is indicated in various indicators related to consumption, investment, and exports, it added.
Major export markets for HCM City and Vietnam as a whole, including the US, the EU, and China, are expected to grow at a modest pace, posing a challenge in promoting total demand recovery for the city.
However, the city’s economic outlook is expected to become better in the second half of the year thanks to the city’s effort to disburse public investment and measures to address bad debt and enhance liquidity in the banking system.
HCM City posted growth of 5.81% in 2023, down from 9.03% in 2022.
The city also aims to attain 100% of State budget revenue targets in 2024.
Despite the challenges ahead, the city has set a range of targets for the upcoming year.
The targets include increasing tourism revenue to over 190 trillion VND, attracting over 6 million international visitors, upgrading 100% of its information technology infrastructure, having 297 classrooms per 10,000 school-age residents, and aiming for 87% of its trained workforce to have certificates or training qualifications
The city also plans to create 140,000 new jobs and put into use three general hospitals in Thu Duc, Hoc Mon, and Cu Chi districts.
Recommendations
To attain its target growth rate for 2024, the research group has proposed several policy recommendations, including diversifying export markets and expanding to potential markets such as Japan, the Republic of Korea, and India, as India currently has a stable and high economic growth rate.
It should focus on developing high-tech industries, financial services, and managing and stabilising the real estate market to meet housing demand and support production and business activities.
It should also prioritise expediting public spending, boosting consumption, and resolve the challenges faced by businesses in 2024.
The city’s total retail sales of goods and consumer services in 2023 increased by 10.8%, and total tourism revenue increased by 22% over 2022.
International visitors to the city increased by 44.3% and the number of newly established businesses increased by 10%.
Tourism revenue rose 25% from 2019 (before COVID-19) to 160 trillion VND (6.56 billion USD), the highest in five years.
Its industrial index recorded growth of 4.3% in 2023, higher than the national average. Services surged by nearly 6.8%.
Agriculture and seafood rose 1.53% while industrial industry and construction rose 4.42%.
However, experts pointed out that the city’s economic recovery will continue to face challenges next year caused by global turmoil.
The real estate, stock and bond markets will continue facing obstacles next year despite a number of Government measures, they noted.
A number of businesses have been reporting a lack of export orders due to weak global demand.
The report, published by the University of Economics HCM City (UEH) in cooperation with the city’s Statistics Office, provides a comprehensive overview of the city’s economy in 2023, along with forecasts and prospects for 2024.
The report is expected to be published annually./.
